Qantas has a fleet of 12 Airbus A380s. Half of them just finished refurbishing. Unfortunately all were sent to long-term storage after the pandemic hit.
Will Qantas bring back the double-decker and how does it fit into the rest of their fleet? Let’s Talk Aviation!
Aviation in Australia
Due to the geography of Australia and close neighboring islands, Qantas’ fleet is focused on operating two types of flights. Single-aisle and – on busier routes – smaller dual-aisle aircraft for national flights and bigger widebody aircraft for intercontinental flights.
Furthermore, in 2020, two-thirds of the population lived in one of six major cities with almost half of the total population living in either Sydney or Melbourne. This means that it is way easier for an airline like Qantas to fill their planes as most planes operate on high-demand routes and the market is very concentrated into a few areas.
For certain in contrast with Europe and the United States where there are a lot more relatively smaller cities which a lot of demand between all of them. This could be one of the reasons while the Airbus A380 is working out better for Qantas than it was for the European carriers Air France, British Airways, and Lufthansa.
Fleet History
Before we investigate the future, we need to understand the past. Historically, Qantas has been an avid user of the Boeing 747. It even was an all-Boeing 747 user, the only in the world, between 1979 and 1985. Over the years that followed, Qantas expanded operations and added the Boeing 767 to its fleet. During the privatization of both Qantas and Australian Airlines, the companies merged in 1993. This meant too that Qantas now owned many Boeing 737s. The airline was growing, and besides their intercontinental network, they operated a sizable portion of all domestic flights in Australia.
In 2001, the company announced that it would add the Airbus A380 to its fleet of jumbo jets and placed an order for 12 aircraft. And in 2002, the airline was no longer an all-Boeing airline by the delivery of their first Airbus A330.
The Boeing 777
During these years, Qantas was in talks with Boeing to help design their new triple seven airliner. However, they never ordered it. They went with the aforementioned Airbus A330 and A380. While it is hard to point to a specific reason for their decision, there has been much speculation. There have been comments made by Qantas executives on the size of the aircraft and it being too large for domestic operations and that the A380 would be a better fit for intercontinental operations.
Also, by the time they decided not to go forward with the triple seven, they announced they would buy another six Boeing 747 aircraft. This would point to fleet commonality as a reason. It is no secret that operating as few different aircraft as possible is generally a good move. However, not much later they went on to order two different Airbus aircraft.
We will probably never know exactly what made Qantas change their mind about the Boeing 777. One thing is certain, looking back, it likely would have been a better choice to go with the triple seven instead of the A380.
Examining their fleet before the pandemic, it consisted of surprisingly few different types of aircraft considering their size.
They operated a mix of Airbus A330, A380, and Boeing 747, which were scheduled for retirement a few years later, and 787 planes on longer-haul flights, and their only small body was the Boeing 737-800.
In 2019, they announced an order for 36 Airbus A321XLRs. Partly to expand their network and operations. However, with an aging fleet of 737s, it is likely that these will be replaced in part by the A321.
Project Sunrise
In 2017, Qantas started work on project sunrise. The goal was to start operating non-stop flights from the Australian east coast; Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane to destinations around the world. It is still unclear when the first flights will happen. Destinations include London, Paris, Frankfurt in Europe, New York and Chicago in the USA, Cape Town in South Africa, and Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
These could become their most profitable flights as the already existing direct flight between London Heathrow and Perth was their most profitable international route before the pandemic. Qantas expects that travelers – after the pandemic – still prefer a direct flight over one with a layover.
Boeing 777X or Airbus A350
Before the pandemic hit, Qantas announced that they had chosen the Airbus A350 as the aircraft of choice, putting it above the Boeing 777X. There has never been an exact explanation on why they had chosen the Airbus, but at the time of the decision, at the end of 2019, the Airbus A350 was already in the air for a couple of years without many issues and the 777X was still in development. As of today, there are still many questions on when and in what capacity the 777X will start flying. Boeing plans the first deliveries for 2024.
There is however some speculation on why Qantas chose the A350 over the 777X. Main factors include fuel efficiency and the increased take-off weight of the Airbus thanks to an extra fuel tank.
On the other hand, Boeing is said to have offered a steep discount on the 777X if Qantas had taken their bid. However, in hindsight, Airbus had a great ace up their sleeves for Qantas. They offered Qantas a grace period. They could take their time with signing the contract and making the first payments. When the pandemic hit, this meant that Qantas was able to put the entire project on hold indefinitely without at very few costs. Where many other airlines had to make deals with Airbus and Boeing to delay the delivery of their planes, Qantas was able to just sit and wait.
Future of Project Sunrise
What will the future look like for the project? This is of course hard to say with the strict rules the Australian government had put in place to keep the virus away from the island as much as possible and limit travel to a minimum. However, just a few weeks ago, they announced that they were looking at December of this year to start operating flights again to several countries including Japan, the US, and the UK.
This could open the door again to finally greenlight the project and this is also confirmed by their CEO Alan Joyce. He hopes to put in the final go at their last go/no-go point next year.
While their plans are still to order the Airbus A350, they still can choose otherwise.
Future of the A380
Coming back to the A380, what will the future be of this aircraft at Qantas. As I have discussed before, long-range long-haul flights to large business hubs have been one of the most profitable routes for Qantas. Furthermore, they have invested heavily in the aircraft. Right before international travel was shut down, Qantas was in the middle of a large project to refit all their A380s. Currently, half of them have been refitted. Just a couple of weeks ago, the seventh of their fleet was flown over from the desert to Dresden to get the update as well. This is a very strong indicator that Qantas is still committed to more than a couple of their double decker’s back into operations.
Just a few days later, they indeed announced that they would take the A380 back into operations. While not all twelve will come back, ten should be in the air again in 2024 and the first as early as 2022.
I think that Qantas has made a questionable decision by choosing the A380 over the 777. However, due to the geography of Australia, they can make it work out for them. And I foresee little issues when they bring back the A380 on their long-haul flights. There should be enough room in the market to operate it next to their non-stop flights which are part of Project Sunrise, which I believe will go ahead and become a real profit maker for the airline.